The objective of this part of the study is to estimate the effect proposed phosphorus
regulations in Manitoba will have on manure management costs to the Province’s pig producers
(individually and in aggregate), should the regulations come into effect. The task is to apply the
framework for analysis outlined in Part 1 to determine an estimated annual Provincial cost. To establish an aggregate estimate of changed manure management costs requires first a determination of the estimated cost at the individual operation or farm level. The individual costs can then be aggregated to determine an estimate at the Provincial level. For the individual operation, the cost estimation is a three-step process: first, establish a N-based
cost and land area (cost and land area that relates to standard nitrogen-based application);
second, establish the cost and land area required under compliance to the new regulations; third,
subtract the second estimates from the first to determine the changes. The estimated added annual cost to the Manitoba pig industry under a maximum threshold
regulation of 2xPhosphorus removal of 17.88 million dollars represents about 18% of the
estimated annual 2005 net income accruing to pig producers in the Province. The estimated
added annual cost under a maximum threshold regulation of 1xPhosphorus removal of 27.86
million dollars represents about 28% of the estimated annual 2005 net income accruing the pig
producers in the province.