Poultry: Turkey production rose 4.9 percent in third-quarter 2007 and whole-bird stocks rose. The higher stock levels held down seasonal price increases for wholesale whole birds, but prices for whole hens in the Eastern market in fourth-quarter 2007 are expected to average slightly higher than the previous year. Broiler production in fourth-quarter 2007 is forecast at 9.125 billion pounds, 3.7 percent higher than in the previous year. Higher broiler and pork production, combined with no increase in broiler exports, is expected to place downward pressure on broiler prices in fourth-quarter 2007. The broiler meat production estimate for 2008 was increased by 325 million pounds due to
continued increases in chick placements and higher slaughter weights.
Cattle/Beef: The cattle and beef sectors are responding to downward pressures, partly seasonal, but also in response to more abundant, lower priced competing meats. These price declines, along with high feed prices and the growing prospect of reduced winter wheat pasture, are also affecting feeder cattle prices. Any price changes will be influenced by changes in U.S. beef trade status.
Dairy: Milk production continues its above-average rise into 2008. Production and stocks of butter and nonfat dry milk have risen in response to higher prices, although stocks have been building. Exports remain strong in the face of tight global supplies and a weak dollar and are expected to limit price declines for the balance of 2007 and into 2008.
Sheep/Lamb: In third-quarter 2007, commercial production of lamb and mutton totaled 42 million pounds, equaling the third quarter of 2006. However, fourthquarter 2007 commercial production is expected to be about 2 percent above the same period last year. This expectation is largely due to the typical fourth-quarter production increase to accommodate the seasonal demand, along with a forecast decline in fourth-quarter imports brought on by the devalued U.S. currency.
Hogs/Pork: Larger-than-expected hog slaughter numbers in October prompted USDA to add 75 million pounds of pork to the fourth-quarter 2007 pork production estimate. For 2007, total U.S. pork production is expected to be 21.8 billion pounds, 3.3 percent above a year ago. U.S. hog prices through first-quarter 2008 are expected to fall well below current break-even prices.