Inference in disease transmission experiments by using stochastic epidemic models
Posted in: Welfare by admin on January 1, 2005 | No Comments
The paper extends the susceptible–exposed–infective–removed model to handle
heterogeneity introduced by spatially arranged populations, biologically plausible distributional
assumptions and incorporation of observations from additional diagnostic tests. These extensions
are motivated by a desire to analyse disease transmission experiments in a more detailed
fashion than before. Such experiments are performed by veterinarians to gain knowledge about
the dynamics of an infectious disease. By fitting our spatial susceptible–exposed–infective–
removed with diagnostic testing model to data for a specific disease and production environment
a valuable decision support tool is obtained, e.g. when evaluating on-farm control measures.
Partial observability of the epidemic process is an inherent problem when trying to estimate
model parameters from experimental data.We therefore extend existing work on Markov chain
Monte Carlo estimation in partially observable epidemics to the multitype epidemic set-up of
our model. Throughout the paper, data from a Belgian classical swine fever virus transmission
experiment are used as a motivating example.
On-Farm Feed Making Equipment: Design and Validation
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Quality control of on-farm feed mixing must include scale and metering device verification, mixer performance testing procedures, and equipment clean out procedures. Electric Volumetric Proportioner Systems are commonly used, but new technology is slowly replacing them. Steps should be taken for these systems to calibrate. This prevents mechanical and flow rate fluctuations. Cross contamination should also be avoided. On-farm mixing equipment must be verified often (no less than once a year) to comply with the CFIA. Mixers are valid if the coefficient of variation for the test batch is within the lower control limit. Scales must be tested with a strict set of steps and regulations. When it comes to types of mixers, there is a unique set of standards for horizontal mixers, vertical mixers, and transverse mixers.
The CFIA has proposed some changes in their Medicated Feed Regulations section for on-farm feed mill operators. These proposed practices include equipment clean-out procedures, scale and metering device verification (which includes scale and metering device performance testing procedures), and mixer performance testing procedures.
Lowering In-Transit Losses
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The term “in-transit losses” refers to the market weight pigs that die on the way to the packing plant or while they are in temporary holdings at the packing plant. This problem represents a significant welfare concern for the swine industry. A study in Ontario found that pigs are affected by both temperature and humidity; therefore reductions in density of pigs on trucks must take both heat and humidity into account. Farm of origin accounts for more variation due to in-transit loss than does the transport company or packing plant. Producers must implement changes in genetics, handling, and/or feeding practices to reduce in-transit losses. Pigs travelling large distances did not experience higher in-transit losses than those travelling shorter distances.
Feed Quality and On-Farm Feed Mills
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Federal Feeds legislation has regulated the manufacture and marketing of livestock feed in Canada since the early 1900s. Two federal regulatory initiatives being developed include Regulations Respecting the Making of Medicated Feeds (to better protect health and food safety) and changes to the Health of Animals Regulations (removal of bovine specific risk material). The proposed Regulations have two basic objectives: all medicated feeds should contain the intended level of medication, and carryover during manufacturing should be managed so that there is no detectable residues in future feed. Hitting medication targets set by Health Canada is a must for the health of the animals and the humans. Scales and measuring devices must be calibrated at the time of installation and at least once a year after that. Mixer performance testing must also be performed at the time of installation and at least once a year after that. This is to determine whether the mixing equipment is capable of producing feeds of uniform consistency. Drug residues and carryover must be directed toward a lower-risk feed via sequencing practices and appropriate use of flush material.
2005 Michigan Swine (Farrow to Finish) Business Analysis Summary
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This report summarizes the financial and production records of 11 Michigan, farrow to finish, swine farms. To be included, the farms must have produced at least 50 percent of gross cash farm income from one or a combination of fat hogs, feeder pigs and cull breeding hogs sales. The records came from Michigan State University’s TelFarm project and the Farm Credit Service system in Michigan. The values were pooled into averages for reporting purposes.
Farm records were included if a farm financial summary was completed on 2005 data including beginning and ending balance sheets, plus income and expenses. The data were checked to verify that cash discrepancy was less than 10% of gross cash inflow and that debt discrepancy was less than $1,000. While considerable variation in the data exists, average values are reported in the summary tables below.








