This paper examines the adjustment of pig production to an animal
\ndisease epidemic. We raise two major aspects regarding the adjustment. Firstly, even
\nif the characteristics of an epidemic depend on the structure of farming, agricultural
\nproducers face a great uncertainty about the number of animals removed from market
\nand the duration of export distortions. Secondly, livestock production is inelastic in the short run. When an
\noutbreak occurs, producers are unable to quickly increase aggregate production
\nbecause it takes time to produce reproduction animals or to raise fattening animals.
\nEven if producers are able to decrease production in the short run e.g. by culling
\nanimals prematurely, it may be costly for an individual producer to reduce yield levels
\nor the number of animals in stock unless policy or market explicitly provide incentives
\nfor such behaviour. Results suggest that
\ntrade ban duration can have large impact on losses. When the expected duration of the
\ntrade ban increases, losses increase at an increasing rate for durations which we
\nsimulated. Results also suggest that if export market become completely closed and
\nremain closed for sufficiently long time, meat market can in practice collapse. The modelling approach proposed in this paper has the potential to examine
\nhow rationally behaving producers could adjust production after observing epidemics
\nand export shocks of different magnitudes. Models such as this are best suited for
\ncomparing differences in results between scenarios. In contrast to this, the results of an individual scenario should be interpreted with caution, as they are affected by
\nparameter values, such as elasticity estimates, calibration values and production costs,
\nwhich are to some extend normative. Our approach could be complemented by more
\nthorough analysis of behaviour of consumers, producers and adjustment options. As
\nthe duration of market shock seems to be important, an interesting application is to
\ncombine epidemiological and economic models in order to study disease policy issues
\nsuch as emergency vaccination, where uncertainty and time play an important role.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
This paper examines the adjustment of pig production to an animal disease epidemic. We raise two major aspects regarding the adjustment. Firstly, even if the characteristics of an epidemic depend on the structure of farming, agricultural producers face a great uncertainty about the number of animals removed from market and the duration of export distortions. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[8882,640,2854,16845,189,6784,190,583,2472,1048,60,6807,5250,2851,7904,20007,7027,10858,94,10859,14,1635,16262,21206,17743,27282,20912,3808,20911,4874,6053,2285],"class_list":["post-4886","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-al","tag-animal","tag-bin","tag-close","tag-consumer","tag-cos","tag-cost","tag-costs","tag-culling","tag-demand","tag-disease","tag-dynamic-programming","tag-export","tag-fat","tag-fattening","tag-gh","tag-livestock-epidemics","tag-mark","tag-meat","tag-nat","tag-pig","tag-pig-production","tag-pl","tag-prem","tag-prod","tag-production","tag-some","tag-supply","tag-t","tag-tan","tag-use","tag-yield"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/prairieswine.com\/rsc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4886","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/prairieswine.com\/rsc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/prairieswine.com\/rsc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/prairieswine.com\/rsc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/prairieswine.com\/rsc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4886"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/prairieswine.com\/rsc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4886\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/prairieswine.com\/rsc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4886"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/prairieswine.com\/rsc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4886"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/prairieswine.com\/rsc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4886"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}