While a number of papers have estimated meat consumption patterns,3 this paper makes the following contributions to the literature on consumption patterns and the environment. First, I include data on prices to capture price elasticity effects. Second, I add a parameter for lagged consumption in order to observe howmuch of meat consumption is due to either partial adjustment or persistence effects. Third, I differentiate meat into beef, chicken and pig products and estimate separate equations. Fourth, I forecast meat consumption using these estimates to the years 2010, 2020 and 2030. I bring together data on greenhouse gas production for the US and Europe in order to approximate the present and forecast the future potential environmental impact of meat consumption under a CAFO system. The main findings of the paper are as follows. First, if current consumption patterns continue, the amount of total
meat consumed in the year 2030 will be 72% higher than the amount consumed in 2000, lead mostly by large increases in
chicken and pig consumption. Second, the production of this meat in 2030, under CAFO systems, will produce almost 1.9
billion tonnes of greenhouse gases. Finally, while there are some solutions to limit this effect, they will be very difficult to implement. Thus, if nations are serious about cutting their production of greenhouse gases, meeting future meat demand will need to be a serious area of discussion for policy makers.