Economics

 Industry Partners


Prairie Swine Centre is an affiliate of the University of Saskatchewan


Prairie Swine Centre is grateful for the assistance of the George Morris Centre in developing the economics portion of Pork Insight.

Financial support for the Enterprise Model Project and Pork Insight has been provided by:



Author(s): Nie Fengying, Dong Ling, Bi Jieying
Publication Date: January 1, 2009
Reference: Contributed Paper prepared for presentation at the International Association of Agricultural Economists Conference, Beijing, China, August 16-22, 2009
Country: China

Summary:

This study used a Census x12 Seasonal Adjustment Method and Hodrick-Prescott Filter Method as well as Frequency (band-pass) Filter Method. It was found that the fluctuation of pork price in China displays obvious and regular seasonal feature. Monthly price in May-June annually is the lowest point of the year, but in January- February and October- December price keeps at a high level. Secondly, unexpected event or contingency shocks make dramatic change in pork price and then damage consumer’s welfare and producer’s income in China. The occurrence and the spread of animal epidemic disease, which can cause large reduction in quantity of sows and the piglets, may be the main reason of price shake in later period. Thirdly, over the long term, pork price in China appears a rising trend reflect the increasing hog production cast due to high price of feed, labor and energy, which also fits with the growth and improvement of socio-economic development level and people’s living standards. Finally, pork price in China approximately experienced three complete cycles from 1996.1 to 2009.5. The cyclical length lies in 37-49 months; the average length is about 42.33 months. The fluctuation scope is similar between the first and third cycle, while the second cycle is relatively smooth and the fourth one is fair turbulent. It is in the falling trend now and may experienced long time in low price. But for most farmers, the hog price is almost break even point, if hog and pock price continuously declines, hog farmers will get loss again. It is urgent to make polices to protest hog farmers’ income.

Download PDF »

You must be logged in to post a comment.

 
 
Slots Master There is no definite strategy or technique that you can use as you play slots