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Author(s): Ronald Meester,Jan de Koning, Mart C. M. de Jong, and Odo Diekmann
Publication Date: January 1, 2002
Reference: BIOMETRICS 58 , 178-184 March 2002
Country: Netherlands

Summary:

We propose a new method to analyze outbreak data of an infectious disease such as classical
swine fever. The underlying model is a two-type branching process. It is used to deduce information concerning the epidemic from detected cases. In particular, the method leads to prediction of the future course of the epidemic and hence can be used as a basis for control policy decisions. We test the model with data from the large 1997-1998 classical swine fever epidemic in The Netherlands. It turns out that our results are in good agreement with the data.

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