Economics

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Prairie Swine Centre is an affiliate of the University of Saskatchewan


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Author(s): Olga Isengildina; Scott H. Irwin; Darrel L. Good
Publication Date: January 1, 2006
Reference: Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics; Aug 2006; 31, 2; ABI/INFORM Global pg. 262
Country: USA

Summary:

This study investigates the impact of six major USDA reports in hog and cattle markets: cattle, cattle on feed, cold storage, hogs and pigs, livestock, dairy, and poultry outlook (LDPO); and the world agricultural supply and demand estimates (WASDE). A TARCH-in-mean model, with dummy variables to measure the impact of USDA Reports and other external factors, is used to model close-to-open live/lean hog and live cattle futures returns from January 1985 to through December 2004. The analysis revealed a statistically significant impact of all but cattle and cold storage reports in live/lean hog futures. Hogs and pig reports had the highest impact on live/lean hog returns by increasing conditional standard deviation 96%. Cattle, cattle on feed, and hogs and pigs reports had the highest impact on live cattle returns by increasing conditional standard deviation 26% and 37.5%.

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